Research & Analysis
Evidence-based analysis on what drives electoral outcomes — from voter turnout to campaign tactics.
Did Musk Swing This Election?
Did Musk Swing This Election? Published: Nov 08, 2024 Note: the data used for this story was as of 11/7 and may be updated as revised data is made available. There is nothing that can shift conventional wisdom (or the fortunes of a small few) more than doing something non-conventional in politics and winning. In 2008, […]
November 7, 2024
Tens of thousands of volunteers have spent months door-knocking for votes. Is this the key to winning or a waste of time?
Tens of thousands of volunteers have spent months door-knocking for votes. Is this the key to winning or a waste of time? After 25 years of research, we’re starting to get a clearer picture of what helps candidates win. But are we paying attention to the researchers or just doing what we've done? […]
November 4, 2024
Targeted Congressional Races, Pt 1
Targeted Congressional Races, part 1 Whether Harris or Trump ends up winning in just over four weeks from now, how much either will get accomplished will be determined largely by elections that few pay attention to - elections for congressional house seats. Currently, Republicans have a 9 seat majority (222-213). This slim majority impacts everything. […]
October 3, 2024
The Vanishing Democratic Legislator
The Vanishing Democratic Legislator Trump's 2016 victory was a shock to the psyche of every Democrat, no doubt. But there's a sense among Democrats that we're doing okay. That, aside from that one fluke election, we're making progress on elections and governing. A decent swatch of our core issues has gained enormous support in a […]
September 4, 2024
The swing voter dilemma
The swing voter dilemma Ah, the notorious ‘swing voter'. There are 7.6 million voters in Michigan, a key battleground state. If we take the mid-range of 12.5%, then that's 950K potential voters. That's over 6 times Biden's win margin in Michigan in the 2020 election. It might seem far-fetched for most of us to learn […]
August 20, 2024
Do Campaigns Matter?
(this content is coming soon)
August 15, 2024
What a local campaign really looks like
(this content is coming soon)
August 15, 2024